Nobel predictions: the 2005 Thomson Scientific Laureates

 

Rodney Yancey
Thomson Scientific
September 2005

In anticipation of the announcement of the 2005 Nobel Prize winners, Thomson Scientific named the 2005 Thomson Scientific Laureates — researchers likely to contend for Nobel honors.

October 2005 update: We are pleased to congratulate one of our Laureates — Robert H Grubbs — who has been awarded The Nobel Prize in Chemistry, together with Yves Chauvin and Richard R Shrock.

Introduction
 Each year, data from ISI Web of KnowledgeSM is used to quantitatively determine the most influential researchers in the Nobel categories of chemistry, economics, physiology or medicine, and physics.

Because of the total citations to their works, these high-impact researchers are named Thomson Scientific Laureates and predicted to be Nobel Prize contenders, either this year or in the near future.

“Citations are an acknowledgement of intellectual debt — a direct demonstration of influence in a given subject area,” said Henry Small, chief scientist of Thomson Scientific. “Researchers who have accumulated such credits from their peers are also often nominated for prizes and other honors, such as the Nobel Prize.”

Thomson Scientific is the only organization to use quantitative data to make regular predictions of Nobel Prize winners. The Thomson Scientific Laureates typically rank among the top one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) of researchers in their fields, based on citations of their published papers over the last two decades.

“Over the past 30 years, our studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between journal article citations and peer esteem, and this is reflected in professional awards like the Nobel Prize,” said Small.

The selection procedure
 To select the 2005 Thomson Scientific Laureates, total citation counts and number of high-impact papers in the Nobel science fields were examined. These data were applied to categories within those fields considered worthy of special recognition by the Nobel Committee. Based on these criteria, three possible winners were selected in each field.

The following lists the 2005 Thomson Scientific Laureates in four Nobel Prize categories:

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Chemistry

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For pioneering research in molecular self-assembly, which promises great
advances in the fabrication of nanoscale machinery and microelectronics:

J. Fraser Stoddart
Saul Winstein Professor of Organic Chemistry

University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, Calif., USA

and

George M. Whitesides
Mallinckrodt Professor of Chemistry

Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., USA

and

Seiji Shinkai
Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry

Kyushu University, Graduate School of Engineering, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan

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For research in organic and natural product synthesis, especially for
achieving the total synthesis of TaxolTM in 1994 and vancomycin in 1998-1999:

K.C. Nicolaou
Chairman, Department of Chemistry

Aline W. and L.S. Skaggs Professor in Chemical Biology and Darlene Shiley Chair in Chemistry

The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, Calif., USA.

Professor of Chemistry, University of California, San Diego, San Diego, Calif., USA

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For breakthrough research in the design and synthesis of complexes with useful catalytic actions, especially in polymerization (the creation of so-called living polymers):

Robert H. Grubbs
Victor and Elizabeth Atkins Professor of Chemistry

Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering

California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif., USA

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Economics

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For their seminal contributions to understanding the relationship
of stock returns and business fluctuations:

Eugene F. Fama
Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance

Graduate School of Business

University of Chicago, Chicago, Ill., USA

and

Kenneth R. French
Carl E. and Catherine M. Heidt Professor of Finance

Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College

Hanover, N.H., USA

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For his development of 'new growth theory', which addresses a fundamental question in economics:
what sustains economic growth in a world characterized by diminishing returns and scarcity:

Paul Michael Romer

Stanford University Graduate School of Business,
Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA USA

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For his pioneering contributions in empirical macroeconomics,
ranging over many fields, but especially for work in public debt in the 1970s:

Robert J. Barro

Robert C. Waggoner Professor of Economics

Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass.,

Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution

Stanford, Calif., USA

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Physiology or Medicine

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For the discovery and elucidation of the role of tumor suppressor genes in oncogenesis:

Alfred G. Knudson Jr.

Senior Advisor to the President and Fox Distinguished Scientist

Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pa., USA

and

Bert Vogelstein

Professor of Oncology and Pathology with a Joint Appointment in Molecular Biology and Genetics

The Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center Johns Hopkins University

Baltimore, Md., USA,

Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator

and

Robert A. Weinberg

Daniel K. Ludwig and American Cancer Society Professor for Cancer Research

MIT, Cambridge, Mass., USA,

Member, Whitehead Institute, Cambridge, Mass., USA

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For breakthrough contributions in cell signaling,
including research on the second messenger inositol triphosphate.

Sir Michael J. Berridge, FRS

Deputy Scientific Director and Head, Molecular Signaling

The Babraham Institute, Babraham, Cambridge, United Kingdom,

Honorary Professor of Department of Zoology

University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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Physiology or Medicine (continued)

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For contributions to mapping the human genome:

Francis S. Collins

Director, National Human Genome Research Institute

Senior Investigator, Genome Technology Branch,

National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Md., USA

and

Eric S. Lander

Professor of Biology

MIT, Cambridge, Mass.,

Director of the Whitehead Institute/MIT Center for Genome Research

Whitehead Institute, Cambridge, Mass., USA

and

J. Craig Venter

President, The Center for Advancement of Genomics

Institute for Biological Energy Alternatives, and Venter Science Foundation

Rockville, Md., USA

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Physics

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For contributions in string theory and M theory:

Michael B. Green, FRS

John Humphrey Plummer Professor of Theoretical Physics

Theoretical High Energy Particle Physics Group

University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

and

John H. Schwarz

Harold Brown Professor of Theoretical Physics

Division of Physics, Mathematics and Astronomy

California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif., USA

and

Edward Witten

Charles Simonyi Professor, School of Natural Sciences

Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, N.J., USA

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For his invention of the blue laser and blue, green and white light-emitting diodes (LEDs),
through the use of gallium nitride based semiconductors � a great leap forward
in data storage technology, lighting devices and other realms:

Shuji Nakamura

Professor, Materials Department

Director of the Center for Solid State Lighting and Displays

University of California, Santa Barbara, Calif., USA

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For outstanding research in correlated-electron oxide materials, including discoveries
in superconducting compounds, and for work on the phenomenon of giant magnetoresistance:

Yoshinori Tokura

Professor, Department of Applied Physics

University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

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