Citations predict four Nobel Prize winners
This year we successfully predicted four Nobel Prize winners in two categories—Economics and Physiology or Medicine.
Since 1989, Thomson Reuters has correctly predicted at least one Nobel Laureate each year. In 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2008 these Citation Laureates won in the same year they were named. In 2008, three Nobel Prizes were accurately predicted—in Physiology or Medicine, Chemistry, and Economics.
This year, Thomson Reuters successfully predicted two Nobel Prize category winners—in Physiology or Medicine and in Economics. This year's Medicine award went to Elizabeth Blackburn, Carol Greider, and Jack Szostak for their roles in the discovery of and pioneering research on telomeres and telomerases. This trio was predicted this year to be a contender for the Prize by David Pendlebury, citation analyst with the Research Services group. Oliver Williamson, one of the recipients of the prize in Economics, has been on the list of probable winners at Thomson Reuters since 2006 for his research on corporate governance.
"Our successful predictions illustrate how Web of Science covers the most significant scientific research in all disciplines, across all time spans,” said David Pendlebury, Research Services, Thomson Reuters. "Our prediction method, using citation counts as its fundamental point of departure, has over the years proven to be an accurate measure of research success and of Nobelists-to-be."
This scientific approach to predicting the Nobel Prizes regularly catches the imagination of bloggers and the press worldwide, including publications such as New York Times, Smart Money, Newsweek and Times Higher Education.
Read more about the methodology behind the predictions, and past and present winners, on our Citation Laureates web site.
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